Hospital waiting lists on course to increase by 74,700 this year as achieving targets becomes increasingly unlikely
Analysis suggests Government set to miss reduction targets by as much as 18%, unless corrective action taken
Three main waiting lists may increase by over 74,700 by end of 2024 if current trends continue; an increase of 11% compared with the start of the year;- Analysis suggested 14% of the entire population, over 746,000 people, could be waiting for outpatient appointments, inpatient and day case treatment or GI scopes by the end of December; a 18% shortfall against Government waiting list targets;
- Move this week to cancel essential scheduled care across Mid-West region will exacerbate wait times and could have severe knock-on consequences for patient health outcomes;
- A record 913,000 people now on some form of public hospital waiting list;
- IHCA President Prof Gabrielle Colleran: “The latest waiting list figures have confirmed what many patients in this country already knew far too well; that the Government’s Action Plans have failed to significantly reduce waiting lists, despite millions being spent on the initiatives.”
New figures published by the National Treatment Purchase Fund (NTPF) today (Friday 9 August 2024) confirm that targets to reduce waiting lists by 6% this year are increasingly unlikely to be met, according to the Irish Hospital Consultants Association (IHCA).
The IHCA warned that the decision this week to cancel essential elective surgeries, endoscopies and outpatient appointments for an indefinite period in hospitals across the Mid-West will exacerbate wait times for patients in the region and could have severe knock-on consequences for health outcomes.
According to a new trend analysis carried out by the Association,1 more than 74,700 people could be added to the three main waiting lists this year if current trends continue – an increase of 11% compared with the start of the year.
The Department of Health and HSE had targeted a reduction of 39,300 by the end of December,2 which it is now almost certain to miss, with a total for the three main waiting lists potentially reaching 746,000 by year end.
Under these projections, waiting lists for outpatient appointments, inpatient and day case treatment and gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopies could potentially end the year 114,000 (18%) above the Government’s reduction targets for 2024. This projected increase would dwarf the modest reductions in waiting lists of 4% (29,800) and 3% (18,800) achieved in 2022 and 2023 respectively, undermining what little progress was made.
The figures also show that instead of an expected reduction of around 22,900 by this point in the year, almost 40,800 additional people have been added to these three main waiting lists – a 63,700 shortfall.2 This is because demand continues to outstrip limited supply, which is impacting on the health service’s ability to deliver care.
Likewise, the outpatient waiting list has increased by 37,400 so far in 2024 to 599,458, with inpatient and day case waiting lists up by more than 2,300 (+3%) to 88,063. Adding these to the 24,670 awaiting a GI scope and the over 200,800 on a myriad of other ‘hidden lists’ for planned procedures and suspensions, brings the total NTPF waiting list figure to a record 913,000.
The Association has urged the Government to take the necessary actions to follow through on their promises to significantly increase public hospital capacity, including the opening of 3,000 additional hospital beds, surgical hubs and elective hospitals already announced by the Minister for Health, in order to address these unacceptable waiting lists.
It also expressed concern over the HSE’s ability to hire the required admin support staff and multidisciplinary team members given that the latest pay and numbers strategy shows vacancies up to the end of 2023 have been effectively suppressed. Consultants fear that the failure to fill these posts will cause a loss of productivity and may result in patient safety issues.
Commenting on today’s waiting list figures from the NTPF, IHCA President Prof Gabrielle Colleran said:
“The latest waiting lists figures have confirmed what many patients in this country already knew far too well; that the Government’s Action Plans have failed to significantly reduce waiting lists, despite millions being spent on the initiatives. In fact, it seems likely 2024 will see significant increases, in a stark reversal of the modest reductions achieved over the past two years. A radical rethink is long overdue.
“It is extremely disappointing to see the HSE in the Mid-West this week switching off services by cancelling essential elective surgeries, endoscopies and outpatient appointments for an indefinite period as the ‘solution’ to the overcrowding problems in the Emergency Department at University Hospital Limerick. This should not be the ‘go-to solution’ for management, as it only undermines our commitment to care for already vulnerable patients, increases waiting lists and may lead to poorer health outcomes. Patients in Limerick and elsewhere deserve better.
“The IHCA believes the Government must work towards a serious reduction in waiting times for patients, aiming for a six-week maximum wait. But without addressing the very obvious shortages of hospital beds, theatres, diagnostic and other facilities, together with filling the 850 Consultant posts that are vacant or filled on a temporary basis, the Government will not address the core problems facing our public hospitals and these lengthening waiting lists.”
ENDS
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Notes to editors:
1. A linear best-fit trend series carried out by the IHCA based on staring values for the first seven months of 2024 projects there could be 746,123 people on the three main waiting lists at the end of December 2024.
2. 2024 Waiting List Action Plan:
https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/289019/28c3240b-66bb-415b-9d5a-37b57eae7cd1.pdf